POLITICS
Stalling Growth: Canada’s Economy Shrinks at End of 2025 as Rate Cut Pressure Mounts
Canada’s GDP shrank at the end of 2025 as businesses cut inventories. Discover how this impacts the Bank of Canada’s rate cut timeline and 2026 growth.
The 2025 Economic Cold Snap
The Canadian economy experienced a sharper-than-expected cooling at the end of 2025, leaving policymakers and investors scrambling to recalibrate their expectations for the coming year. Data released today reveals that the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted during the final quarter, a move largely attributed to a significant reduction in business inventories. This trend of “destocking”—where companies sell off existing goods rather than producing or importing new ones—acted as a significant drag on economic output, offsetting gains in other sectors.
Understanding the Inventory Impact
Economists point to the inventory drawdown as a sign of business caution. After several years of supply chain volatility, many firms had built up substantial cushions of stock. As consumer demand softened throughout the latter half of 2025, businesses prioritized clearing these backlogs to improve cash flow and reduce carrying costs in a high-interest-rate environment. While this process is technically a subtraction from GDP, some analysts view it as a necessary correction that sets the stage for future growth when restocking eventually resumes. However, the immediate impact has been a cooling of the headline growth figures that far exceeded analysts’ initial fears.
The Bank of Canada’s Policy Dilemma
The latest figures place the Bank of Canada (BoC) in a delicate position. For months, the central bank has maintained a holding pattern, waiting for clear evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to its two percent target. However, the current growth trajectory for the first quarter of 2026 is trending at approximately 1.0 percent, significantly underperforming the BoC’s own forecast of 1.8 percent. This underperformance suggests that the economy is cooling more rapidly than anticipated, potentially opening the door for rate cuts sooner than the mid-2026 consensus previously held by many market participants.
Expert Perspectives on Growth and Rates
Andrew Grantham, a senior economist at CIBC, noted that while today’s data might not be enough to move the central bank immediately, the outlook is shifting. Grantham highlighted that any negative trends in the job market, which has so far remained relatively resilient, would be the likely catalyst for a change in the BoC’s thinking. Similarly, Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO, described the current growth as “mild” at best, suggesting that while the door to rate cuts is “slightly ajar,” the central bank is not quite ready to walk through it just yet. The cautious tone from the BoC reflects a fear of cutting too early and reigniting inflationary pressures, particularly in the housing market.
Silver Linings in the Revision Data
Despite the weak finish to 2025, the report offered some positive news in the form of historical revisions. The GDP figures for the second quarter of 2025 were revised from a -1.8 percent contraction to a much shallower -0.9 percent. Dominique Lapointe, director of macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management, pointed out that these revisions mean the economy was actually on firmer footing heading into the second half of the year than previously understood. This revision effectively aligns the total size of the Canadian economy by year-end with earlier, more optimistic forecasts, despite the fourth-quarter stumble.
A Cautious Outlook for 2026
As Canadians look toward the remainder of 2026, the economic narrative remains one of caution. Consumers, squeezed by the lingering effects of high debt-servicing costs, have pulled back on discretionary spending. This was evident in the third-quarter data, which was also revised downward to 2.4 percent annualized growth from 2.6 percent. Economists described that period as a “mixed bag,” where growth was artificially supported by a drop in imports rather than a surge in domestic productivity. For the average Canadian household, the primary concern remains whether the current slowdown will translate into broader job losses or if the economy can achieve the elusive soft landing that the Bank of Canada has been aiming for.
BC STORIES
Why Ottawa Is Guaranteeing $3-Billion for the Fraser River Crossing No Matter What BC Builds
Ottawa maintains its $3B commitment for the George Massey Tunnel replacement, supporting Premier-designate Lorne Doerkson whether BC builds a tunnel or bridge.
Federal Government Backs Fraser River Infrastructure
The federal government is maintaining its $3-billion financial commitment to replace the 65-year-old George Massey Tunnel, regardless of whether British Columbia constructs a bridge or a new tunnel.
Federal Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon affirmed the funding stance in Delta on Friday, Oct. 30. Speaking at an event designating the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 port expansion as a project of national interest, MacKinnon stated that Ottawa supports the river crossing method chosen by the province. He noted the federal investment aims to support regional trade infrastructure, traffic circulation across the Lower Mainland, and local quality of life.
Provincial Debates over Bridge and Tunnel Options
The federal backing follows a $20-billion joint agreement signed in July, which originally slotted the $3-billion federal contribution toward an eight-lane immersed-tube tunnel. That provincial project, initially announced by the BC NDP government in August 2021 with a $4.15-billion estimate and 2030 completion date, saw its design-build contract canceled in June due to unresolved commercial terms. By July, updated provincial disclosures indicated the tunnel project cost had escalated to $8.5 billion, with completion pushed to September 2031.
During the recent provincial election campaign, Conservative Leader and Premier-designate Lorne Doerkson pledged to cancel the tunnel initiative in favor of a 10-lane bridge. Doerkson estimated the bridge option would cost $6 billion and take five years to construct, claiming the resulting $2.5-billion savings compared to the revised tunnel cost could fund a new women and children’s hospital in Surrey. Doerkson stated at Friday’s event that residents simply want the crossing completed and noted he has discussed the project with Prime Minister Mark Carney.
BC NDP Leader David Eby previously criticized the proposal to switch to a bridge, describing the abandonment of the active tunnel project as unreasonable. Eby warned that scrapping the tunnel plans would discard $581 million already spent and prolong the overall project timeline.
LOCAL
Why Kelowna’s New City Council Faces Questions Over Transparency and Pre-Vote Media Access
Re-elected Kelowna Mayor Tom Dyas pledges better communication, but critics and new councillors debate pre-decision transparency and public media access.
Kelowna Mayor Pledges Communication Enhancements
Re-elected Kelowna Mayor Tom Dyas marked the start of the new municipal term at Monday’s swearing-in ceremony by promising to expand ways for the city to listen and communicate. Acknowledging that room for improvement exists, Dyas noted that public feedback over recent months highlighted a need for better engagement, prompting the city to examine potential updates to its process.
However, questions remain regarding whether these adjustments will offer the public and press greater access to individual councillors prior to official votes. Dyas maintains that elected officials should refrain from publicly sharing their positions before council meetings take place, explaining that deliberations and incoming information could shift a councillor’s perspective.
Media Restrictions and Academic Criticism
Past practice during Dyas’ first term frequently saw journalists informed that the municipal code of conduct restricted councillors from commenting on agenda items before table debates. Although the code does not explicitly forbid officials from voicing personal opinions on municipal issues either before or after council consideration, Dyas argued that speaking prior to a decision is inappropriate and risks outside discussion improperly influencing deliberations.
This stance faces criticism from University of Victoria journalism professor Sean Holman, the Wayne Crooks Professor in Environmental and Climate Journalism. Holman warned that withholding public discussion until after decisions are finalized undermines transparency and accountability. Stating that Canadians seek authenticity and truth from elected officials, Holman noted that scripted communications and limited access erode public trust and the right to know why decisions are made.
New Councillors Seek Open Public Engagement
The newly sworn-in nine-member council includes five new faces, several of whom advocate for a more accessible approach. Newly-elected councillor Les Bellamy stated he does not intend to be silenced and plans to speak respectfully, arguing that the code of conduct does not restrict comments on general municipal matters. Bellamy expressed a desire to ensure all relevant facts are gathered while simultaneously creating broader opportunities for resident input, announcing plans for a motion directing staff to explore enhanced communication channels such as townhalls or dedicated public input time during meetings.
Fellow newcomer Kevin Kraft similarly confirmed his comfort with speaking to journalists prior to meetings. With five new members joining the table, whether the updated lineup leads to lasting shifts in council communication will become clear over time.
BC STORIES
What to Expect as B.C. Prepares for Its First New Government in Nine Years
B.C. Conservatives prepare to form government as premier-designate Lorne Doerkson plans his cabinet ahead of November swearing-in ceremonies.
A Major Shift in Victoria
British Columbia is undergoing its first change of government in nine years as the B.C. Conservatives prepare to take power. Preliminary election figures place the B.C. Conservatives ahead with 63 seats, while the B.C. NDP holds 28 and the B.C. Greens hold two.
ElectionsBC plans to start the final vote count on Nov. 6 across all 93 ridings, checking mail-in, absentee, and assisted telephone ballots through integrity checks to confirm voter eligibility and single-voting. Final results and official election declarations will be completed no later than Nov. 10. Tight contests remain in several ridings, including Ladysmith-Oceanside, Cowichan Valley, and Kelowna Centre.
Transitioning Opposition into Executive Power
Premier-designate Lorne Doerkson will officially swear in his cabinet on Nov. 20 at Government House in Victoria. Ahead of the ceremony, Doerkson met individually with incoming MLAs to help determine executive roles, holding his initial post-election caucus gathering on Monday at a nearby hotel ballroom to stress unity moving forward.
Former B.C. Liberal premier Christy Clark anticipates regional representation will be a priority for the incoming cabinet. “I think people should watch for the folks who were most active in question period, the most active in doing public speaking, the ones that have really gained a subject matter expertise,” Clark noted, adding, “None of these people have been in government for nine years. They’ve all been opposition… He’s going to have a chance to get a group of really fresh people with fresh ideas.”
New Leadership and Legislative Operations
The transition team is being directed by Kim Henderson, a former deputy to Clark. Strategist and pollster Dimitri Pantazopoulos has been named chief of staff in the premier’s office. Pantazopoulos previously served as deputy campaign director for the party and worked as Clark’s principal secretary. “I think it’s the first of what I think will be many really good decisions from this premier,” Clark remarked regarding the appointment.
Incoming lawmakers start orientation at “MLA school” on Wednesday to review legislative operations and constituency office management. Swearing-in for B.C. Conservative MLAs is scheduled for Nov. 19 at the legislature, though dates for NDP and Green members have yet to be set. The incoming assembly features 30 new Conservative MLAs, three new NDP MLAs, and new B.C. Green Party Leader Emily Lowan.
Potential Early Legislative Session
Doerkson has left open the option of calling a brief fall legislative session to advance campaign commitments. Former NDP chief of staff Geoff Meggs described the overall transition as complex: “It’s like launching three different ships and trying to make them all rendezvous at the same point in about two weeks.”
Aileen Machell, who served as deputy chief of staff to outgoing Premier David Eby, suggested an early session could assist the incoming administration strategically, “If they have a couple of bumpy or unpopular pieces that they might want to deal with right away rather than dealing with them at the same time as the throne speech and the budget, which we will expect to see in the spring.” However, former top officials note that staffing transitions may lead to job turnover among NDP-connected ministerial staff, high-level bureaucrats, and Order-in-Council appointees as the Conservative administration moves in.
-
5 days ago
Your Current 3 Day Forecast — October 31, 2026
-
NATIONAL STORIES7 days agoNational School Food Program Faces Scrutiny After Testimony Shows Inflation Erodes Funding
-
6 days ago
Your Current 3 Day Forecast — October 30, 2026
-
3 days ago
Your Current 3 Day Forecast — November 2, 2026
-
HEALTH6 days agoWhy B.C. Interior Residents Are Being Warned About Dangerous Unregulated Drugs
-
LOCAL3 days agoWhy two Kamloops MLAs see value in a brief sitting before spring
-
LOCAL7 days agoUBC Okanagan Cancels CCS Classes and Exams Following Building Roof Fire
-
NATIONAL STORIES7 days agoNo Danger to Nearby Residents as Base Firefighters Contain CFB Gagetown Blaze