NATIONAL STORIES
Why Monday’s Federal By-Elections Could Signal How Voters View Ongoing Trade Tensions
Voters cast ballots in three federal by-elections in Quebec, Ontario, and BC as ongoing U.S. trade tensions weigh on key competitive ridings.

Advance Voter Turnout Reaches 39,500 Across Three Ridings
Elections Canada has recorded 39,500 early ballots in three federal by-elections scheduled for Monday, where voters will decide contested seats in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. The open seats were previously held by two Liberals and one Conservative who departed for distinct roles in public service and politics.
In North Vancouver-Capilano, 16,700 early votes were submitted. Beaches-East York recorded 11,800 advance ballots, while 11,000 electors voted early in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. The outcome arrives while the Liberal party maintains a narrow majority inside the House of Commons.
U.S. Trade Conflicts Influence Quebec Race
The ongoing trade disputes with the United States may play a key role in the Quebec riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, noted that the breakdown of trade talks could be particularly relevant because Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil is a dairy farmer and former president of the Dairy Farmers of Quebec.
“The trade war may have an impact on the Quebec by-election because the Liberal candidate is a dairy farmer,” said Mr. Nanos in a statement, adding that it will be notable to see if the trade conflict provides an advantage in the competitive riding.
Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada and James McGill Professor, observed that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s standing in Quebec regarding the trade war appears to bolster support for Mr. Gobeil. Mr. Béland stated, “It is the one in which a partisan shift is most likely as the Conservatives seem poised to lose a seat at the expense of the Liberals, or, perhaps the Bloc.”
The Chicoutimi-Le Fjord seat became vacant when Conservative MP Richard Martel was named to the Senate. Mr. Martel originally entered Parliament through a 2018 by-election and secured the riding in 2025 with 34 per cent of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Bloc candidate at 31.19 per cent and the Liberal candidate at 31.12 per cent. Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault, a lawyer and Cégep de Chicoutimi teacher, and Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé are also contesting the seat.
Contests in Toronto and North Vancouver
In Toronto’s Beaches-East York riding, former MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith stepped down in July following an unsuccessful bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership. Mr. Erskine-Smith, who captured 67.75 per cent of the ballots in 2025, has since declared his intention to seek a seat on Toronto City Council. His former assistant and office manager, Tanveer Shahnawaz, is running for the Liberals against Conservative restaurant operator Jim Syrbos and NDP candidate Shannon Devine.
In British Columbia, North Vancouver-Capilano was left open after longtime MP Jonathan Wilkinson accepted an appointment as ambassador to the European Union. Former ministerial aide Braeden Caley is standing as the Liberal nominee. He faces Conservative lawyer Stephen Curran, NDP candidate Stephen Tweedale, and Green Party candidate Shelley Luce.
NATIONAL STORIES
How Canada’s Prime Minister Is Building Stronger Trans-Atlantic Ties Close to Home
PM Mark Carney meets French President Emmanuel Macron and Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Store as Canada pursues closer ties with European partners.
Diplomatic Summits Near Newfoundland and Ottawa
Following a trip to Europe, Prime Minister Mark Carney is hosting bilateral discussions with key trans-Atlantic partners over a 48-hour span starting Sunday. Mr. Carney will travel to the French territory of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, located off Newfoundland’s coast, to meet French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday. Later that evening, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store arrives in Ottawa for discussions.
Aligning Foreign Policy and Strategic Goals
The diplomatic visits follow Mr. Carney’s participation in European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union address in Strasbourg, where Canada was invited to become the European Union’s first associate member. The following day, Mr. Carney presented a vision for a broader geopolitical alliance in an address to the European Parliament. Both France and Norway share a foreign policy focus on strategic autonomy. Mr. Store’s February address to the Oslo Security Conference echoed themes from Mr. Carney’s January speech in Davos regarding a rupture in the global order and the economic leverage exerted by major powers.
Broader Geopolitical Context and Challenges
While European leaders typically pass through Canada ahead of the annual United Nations General Assembly in New York, these talks highlight the central role Europe plays in Mr. Carney’s agenda. German Social Democrat MEP Tobias Cremer noted growing interest in partnering with Canada amid geopolitical pressures involving Russia, China, and the United States. However, domestic political shifts pose potential risks to the alliance strategy. Mr. Macron faces political pressure at home from far-right candidate Marine Le Pen ahead of the 2027 presidential election, reflecting broader gains by anti-EU forces across parts of Europe.
NATIONAL STORIES
What to Know Ahead of Alberta’s Oct. 19 Vote on a Separation Referendum
Albertans will vote Oct. 19 on whether to hold a future binding referendum on separating from Canada. Read the timeline of events leading to the ballot.
Upcoming Vote Targets Future Referendum
Voters across Alberta will cast ballots on Oct. 19 to determine if the province should conduct a future binding vote on leaving Canada. The scheduled ballot question follows decades of friction between federal authorities and the western province.
Decades of Tension with Ottawa
The history of western discontent includes the 1980 introduction of the federal National Energy Program, which capped domestic oil prices and faced strong opposition in Alberta. Political movements promoting separation saw brief momentum in 1982 when Western Canada Concept candidate Gordon Kesler captured a provincial byelection, though he lost his seat later that year. Unrest surfaced again in 2019 under Premier Jason Kenney, who campaigned against federal policies while opposing separation, and continued under Premier Danielle Smith, who won the provincial leadership in 2023 on a platform asserting Alberta’s independence while acknowledging separatist concerns.
Legal Battles and Recent Developments
Following Mark Carney’s federal Liberal election victory in April 2025, Premier Smith outlined plans to address citizen petitions regarding the province’s place in Confederation. Former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk gathered over 400,000 signatures on a pro-Canada petition in June 2025, which faced legislative delays, while a petition seeking independence organized by Mitch Sylvestre of the Alberta Prosperity Project garnered roughly 223,000 signatures by early 2026. In May 2026, an Alberta Court of King’s Bench judge struck down the separatist petition for failing to consult First Nations as constitutionally required. Citing that decision and the public interest shown in both petition campaigns, Premier Smith announced a 10th referendum question regarding a potential binding separation vote, adding to nine previously announced questions on immigration and constitutional matters.
Campaign Efforts and Fiscal Estimates
In September 2026, the provincial government initiated a $4-million ad campaign encouraging Albertans to vote to remain part of Canada, amid polling suggesting broad support for staying in Confederation. The ruling United Conservative Party subsequently lost a conservative stronghold byelection in Calgary-Shaw to the NDP, a defeat critics attributed to public dissatisfaction over the referendum issue, though Premier Smith’s office pointed to right-centre vote splitting. That same month, a government-commissioned report from the University of Calgary estimated the initial five-year cost of independence could range between $50 billion and $170 billion, depending on external economic conditions.
NATIONAL STORIES
Why Gun-Control Advocates Are Demanding Transparency Over the Tumbler Ridge Firearm Details
Gun-control groups call on the RCMP to release firearm details from the Tumbler Ridge shooting, as police and Premier Eby stress investigation integrity.
Advocates Push for Full Firearm Disclosure
Seven months after the fatal mass shooting in Tumbler Ridge, gun-control advocacy groups are urging police leadership to share specific details regarding the weapons involved. PolySeSouvient, an organization created after the 1989 massacre at École Polytechnique in Montreal, sent a co-signed letter on Sept. 14 to RCMP Commissioner Michael Duheme requesting maximum transparency around the Feb. 10 incident.
Co-signed by groups including Canadian Doctors for Protection Against Guns, Quebec Mosque, Angie’s Angels, and Danforth Families for Safe Communities, the letter requests details on the make, model, classification, legal status, and acquisition methods of all firearms linked to the killings. The coalition also asks if any weapons were previously reported stolen, seized by authorities, or modified, as well as the reasons and legal grounds behind any prior police seizures from suspect Jesse Van Rootselaar’s home.
Police and Premier Respond to Calls for Updates
According to B.C. RCMP Staff Sgt. Kris Clark, predicting exact timelines during active criminal investigations is virtually impossible due to multiple factors, though police remain dedicated to sharing verified details when feasible. B.C. Premier David Eby noted that while he initially anticipated a shorter probe since the shooter is dead, police must be permitted to complete a thorough investigation without political interference before releasing operational information.
Court documents unsealed following a media application revealed that Van Rootselaar suffered from mental health issues and possessed a fascination with firearms. Heidi Rathjen of PolySeSouvient stressed that releasing basic facts about the weapons allows Canadians to evaluate potential failures in firearms legislation without risking operational secrecy or compromising court proceedings.
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