NATIONAL STORIES
Trade Tariffs and Federal Seats at Stake as Voters Go to Polls in Three Provinces
Voters head to the polls Monday in three federal by-elections across B.C., Ontario, and Quebec as trade tensions with the U.S. influence local campaigns.
Key Contests in B.C., Ontario, and Quebec
Three federal by-elections are taking place on Monday in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec following recent departures of sitting Members of Parliament. The votes will decide representation for North Vancouver-Capilano, Beaches-East York, and Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.
In North Vancouver-Capilano, the Liberals aim to retain a seat they have held since 2015. Former deputy chief of staff Braeden Caley is running for the Liberals after former cabinet minister Jonathan Wilkinson stepped down to become Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. Conservative candidate Stephen Curran, NDP candidate Stephen Tweedale, and Green Party candidate Shelley Luce are also competing for the riding.
Ontario’s Beaches-East York seat became open after former Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith departed to run for Toronto city council. Former constituency office manager Tanveer Shahnawaz is seeking to keep the seat for the Liberals, facing Conservative candidate Jim Sybros, NDP candidate Shannon Devine, and Green candidate Bruce Livesey.
In Quebec, the riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord was vacated after Prime Minister Mark Carney appointed Conservative MP Richard Martel to the Senate. Conservative candidate Regis Gaudreault is seeking to hold the seat against Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil, Bloc Quebecois candidate Caroline Dube, Green candidate Nathe Perrone, and NDP candidate Raphael Emond. Elections Canada advised voters to distinguish this federal vote from an upcoming provincial election in a riding of the same name scheduled for Sept. 26.
U.S. Trade Tension and Parliamentary Seat Dynamics
Ongoing trade friction with the United States forms a major backdrop for voters, particularly in the Saguenay region’s riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. The local economy faces pressures from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on aluminum and forestry products, alongside targeted supply management policies affecting local dairy farmers.
According to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News, 44 per cent of respondents nationally supported the Liberals, compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives, 10 per cent for the NDP, and eight per cent for the Bloc Quebecois. The poll indicated strong provincial support for maintaining a firm stance on trade disputes with the U.S., including 65 per cent agreement in B.C. and Ontario, and 57 per cent in Quebec, despite potential economic impacts.
The governing Liberals currently hold 170 seats in the House of Commons following recent MP resignations, leaving them two seats short of an explicit majority. However, with opposition parties combining for 166 seats, the government retains a working margin. Winning all three Monday contests would bring the Liberal total to 173 seats. Four additional federal by-elections will need to be scheduled in the coming months.
NATIONAL STORIES
How Canada’s Prime Minister Is Building Stronger Trans-Atlantic Ties Close to Home
PM Mark Carney meets French President Emmanuel Macron and Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Store as Canada pursues closer ties with European partners.
Diplomatic Summits Near Newfoundland and Ottawa
Following a trip to Europe, Prime Minister Mark Carney is hosting bilateral discussions with key trans-Atlantic partners over a 48-hour span starting Sunday. Mr. Carney will travel to the French territory of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, located off Newfoundland’s coast, to meet French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday. Later that evening, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store arrives in Ottawa for discussions.
Aligning Foreign Policy and Strategic Goals
The diplomatic visits follow Mr. Carney’s participation in European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union address in Strasbourg, where Canada was invited to become the European Union’s first associate member. The following day, Mr. Carney presented a vision for a broader geopolitical alliance in an address to the European Parliament. Both France and Norway share a foreign policy focus on strategic autonomy. Mr. Store’s February address to the Oslo Security Conference echoed themes from Mr. Carney’s January speech in Davos regarding a rupture in the global order and the economic leverage exerted by major powers.
Broader Geopolitical Context and Challenges
While European leaders typically pass through Canada ahead of the annual United Nations General Assembly in New York, these talks highlight the central role Europe plays in Mr. Carney’s agenda. German Social Democrat MEP Tobias Cremer noted growing interest in partnering with Canada amid geopolitical pressures involving Russia, China, and the United States. However, domestic political shifts pose potential risks to the alliance strategy. Mr. Macron faces political pressure at home from far-right candidate Marine Le Pen ahead of the 2027 presidential election, reflecting broader gains by anti-EU forces across parts of Europe.
NATIONAL STORIES
What to Know Ahead of Alberta’s Oct. 19 Vote on a Separation Referendum
Albertans will vote Oct. 19 on whether to hold a future binding referendum on separating from Canada. Read the timeline of events leading to the ballot.
Upcoming Vote Targets Future Referendum
Voters across Alberta will cast ballots on Oct. 19 to determine if the province should conduct a future binding vote on leaving Canada. The scheduled ballot question follows decades of friction between federal authorities and the western province.
Decades of Tension with Ottawa
The history of western discontent includes the 1980 introduction of the federal National Energy Program, which capped domestic oil prices and faced strong opposition in Alberta. Political movements promoting separation saw brief momentum in 1982 when Western Canada Concept candidate Gordon Kesler captured a provincial byelection, though he lost his seat later that year. Unrest surfaced again in 2019 under Premier Jason Kenney, who campaigned against federal policies while opposing separation, and continued under Premier Danielle Smith, who won the provincial leadership in 2023 on a platform asserting Alberta’s independence while acknowledging separatist concerns.
Legal Battles and Recent Developments
Following Mark Carney’s federal Liberal election victory in April 2025, Premier Smith outlined plans to address citizen petitions regarding the province’s place in Confederation. Former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk gathered over 400,000 signatures on a pro-Canada petition in June 2025, which faced legislative delays, while a petition seeking independence organized by Mitch Sylvestre of the Alberta Prosperity Project garnered roughly 223,000 signatures by early 2026. In May 2026, an Alberta Court of King’s Bench judge struck down the separatist petition for failing to consult First Nations as constitutionally required. Citing that decision and the public interest shown in both petition campaigns, Premier Smith announced a 10th referendum question regarding a potential binding separation vote, adding to nine previously announced questions on immigration and constitutional matters.
Campaign Efforts and Fiscal Estimates
In September 2026, the provincial government initiated a $4-million ad campaign encouraging Albertans to vote to remain part of Canada, amid polling suggesting broad support for staying in Confederation. The ruling United Conservative Party subsequently lost a conservative stronghold byelection in Calgary-Shaw to the NDP, a defeat critics attributed to public dissatisfaction over the referendum issue, though Premier Smith’s office pointed to right-centre vote splitting. That same month, a government-commissioned report from the University of Calgary estimated the initial five-year cost of independence could range between $50 billion and $170 billion, depending on external economic conditions.
NATIONAL STORIES
Why Gun-Control Advocates Are Demanding Transparency Over the Tumbler Ridge Firearm Details
Gun-control groups call on the RCMP to release firearm details from the Tumbler Ridge shooting, as police and Premier Eby stress investigation integrity.
Advocates Push for Full Firearm Disclosure
Seven months after the fatal mass shooting in Tumbler Ridge, gun-control advocacy groups are urging police leadership to share specific details regarding the weapons involved. PolySeSouvient, an organization created after the 1989 massacre at École Polytechnique in Montreal, sent a co-signed letter on Sept. 14 to RCMP Commissioner Michael Duheme requesting maximum transparency around the Feb. 10 incident.
Co-signed by groups including Canadian Doctors for Protection Against Guns, Quebec Mosque, Angie’s Angels, and Danforth Families for Safe Communities, the letter requests details on the make, model, classification, legal status, and acquisition methods of all firearms linked to the killings. The coalition also asks if any weapons were previously reported stolen, seized by authorities, or modified, as well as the reasons and legal grounds behind any prior police seizures from suspect Jesse Van Rootselaar’s home.
Police and Premier Respond to Calls for Updates
According to B.C. RCMP Staff Sgt. Kris Clark, predicting exact timelines during active criminal investigations is virtually impossible due to multiple factors, though police remain dedicated to sharing verified details when feasible. B.C. Premier David Eby noted that while he initially anticipated a shorter probe since the shooter is dead, police must be permitted to complete a thorough investigation without political interference before releasing operational information.
Court documents unsealed following a media application revealed that Van Rootselaar suffered from mental health issues and possessed a fascination with firearms. Heidi Rathjen of PolySeSouvient stressed that releasing basic facts about the weapons allows Canadians to evaluate potential failures in firearms legislation without risking operational secrecy or compromising court proceedings.
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