Carney Heads to Ankara for High-Stakes NATO Summit Focused on ‘Managing’ Trump

A Strategic Sojourn to the Middle East

Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to arrive in Ankara this Monday, marking the first visit by a Canadian leader to Turkey since 2015. The visit serves as the opening leg of a week-long diplomatic mission to the Middle East, which will later see the Prime Minister travel to Saudi Arabia to bolster trade and investment ties. However, the immediate focus remains on the July 7-8 NATO summit—a gathering that experts describe as a carefully curated effort to maintain alliance stability amid unpredictable geopolitical shifts.

The ‘Short and Sweet’ Strategy

This year’s summit has been notably scaled back, reduced from the traditional multi-day affair to a single dinner and a concentrated working session. Former Canadian ambassador to NATO, Kerry Buck, suggests the abbreviated format is a deliberate attempt to avoid the “drama” often associated with U.S. President Donald Trump. “This year’s meeting is primarily about managing the U.S. and keeping President Trump committed to the alliance,” Buck noted. Paradoxically, hosting the event in Turkey may provide a stabilizing effect, as the U.S. President has historically shown more affinity for strongman-style leaders like Recep Tayyip Erdogan than for traditional Western allies.

Defense Spending and Industrial Cooperation

A central theme of the summit will be the “credible” defense spending plans demanded by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Allies are under pressure to reach a five per cent of national GDP target by 2035. Canadian officials indicated that Carney will use the summit to highlight Canada’s progress in defense financing. Beyond the alliance-wide talks, the bilateral relationship between Ottawa and Ankara is under the spotlight. Despite a history of friction over the Armenian genocide recognition and past arms embargoes, there are signs of a thaw. Turkey has expressed significant interest in Canadian nuclear technology to reduce its reliance on Russian energy, while Canada views Turkey as an emerging market for agriculture, mining, and infrastructure.

Navigating a Flawed Democracy

The warming ties come despite Turkey’s domestic challenges, including high inflation and crackdowns on journalists and LGBTQ+ activists. Former military attaché Chris Kilford notes that while Canada continues to grant asylum to Turkish dissidents—a point of contention for Ankara—Turkey remains a vital regional actor. Its unique ability to maintain relative stability amid conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, and Iran makes it an indispensable, if complicated, partner for the Carney government’s four-pillar strategy of energy, trade, security, and people-to-people ties.